Byravee Iyer
Mar 31, 2015

Online video zooms, but ZenithOptimedia lowers overall forecast

GLOBAL - ZenithOptimedia lowered its global forecasts for adspend growth in 2015 and 2016 by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, although the agency still predicts strong growth for 'Fast-Track Asia' and moderate growth for 'Advanced Asia' through 2017.

ZenithOptimedia expects 4.4 per cent growth this year, down from its previous forecast of 4.9 per cent
ZenithOptimedia expects 4.4 per cent growth this year, down from its previous forecast of 4.9 per cent

ZenithOptimedia noted that China's adspend is now so large that even small changes in China can be seen in the global forecast. And just a year after racing past Japan to become the world’s second largest ad spend market, the Chinese economy is slowing. ZenithOptimedia estimates ad spend will grow 9.1 per cent in China this year—below the 10.5 per cent annual growth of the past five years. Between 2014 and 2017, average growth rate should hover at 8.5 per cent, the agency added.

Things don’t look as rosy for the mature markets ZO classifes as 'Advanced Asia' including Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. This group grew 1.5 per cent in 2014, due to weakness in the property market and consumer confidence in Singapore and Australia. As these problems recede, growth will pick up to an average of 3.4 per cent through to 2017, the agency predicted.

'Fast-track Asia' (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam), meanwhile, "barely noticed the 2009 downturn" and ended 2014 up an estimated 10 per cent. However, China accounts for 64 per cent of adspend in this region, so its slowdown will temper growth to an average rate of 9.0 per cent between 2014 and 2017, down from 13.5 per cent over the last five years, the agency reported.

Japan, which ZO treats separately from the rest of Asia, "remains stuck in its rut of persistent low growth", with growth averaging 2 per cent a year for the last five years. ZO predicts no change between 2014 and 2017. 

 

Category predictions

The fastest-growing advertising category is online video, thanks to the explosion of mobile video consumption and the spread of internet-connected devices, such as smart TVs and games consoles. The agency said online view grew 34 per cent to US$10.9 billion in 2014 and has forecast an average of 29 per cent to reach US$23.3 billion in 2017.

The Publicis-owned agency estimates global expenditure on mobile advertising at US$27.4 billion in 2014, representing 22.1 per cent of internet expenditure and 5.3 per cent of total advertising expenditure.

By 2017 this total is set to rise to US$75 billion, which will be 40.4 per cent of internet expenditures and 12.7 per cent of all expenditures. This means that mobile will leapfrog radio, magazines, outdoor and newspapers to become the world’s third-largest medium by the end of the forecast period.

At present, television is still the dominant advertising medium, attracting 39 per cent of spend in 2014. It is is expected to grow 3 per cent a year through to 2017. Despite this, television’s share of global adspend is likely to fall back slightly over the next few years as desktop and mobile internet grow much faster.

 

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