Online video advertising and subscription revenue in APAC will grow from US$26 billion in 2019 to US$52 billion in 2024, a 15% CAGR, according to a new Media Partners Asia (MPA) forecast.
That growth means online video will contribute 33% of combined TV and online video revenue in APAC in 2024, up from 18% this year.
The MPA analysis covers 16 Asia Pacific markets with a focus on consumer and advertiser spend, content costs and market share across key clusters. The findings are being presented at the currently ongoing APOS Summit.
The TV industry in APAC will manage only a ~1% CAGR for the five-year period.
The balance between advertising and subscription revenue is changing, largely due to shifting dynamics in China, according to MPA. Advertising’s share of APAC video revenues will decline to 53% by 2024 from 55% in 2019 as subscription sales scale further in China. Subscription, in turn, will contribute 47% to the pie in 2024, up from 45% in 2019.
Excluding China, advertising’s contribution will remain constant over the 2019 to 2024 period, accounting for 56% of video revenues, with subscription providing 44%.
Here's a market-by-market look at the forecast:
- Overall video revenues will expand by a 5.4% CAGR from 2019, creating a US$70 billion industry by 2024.
- Online video revenue will climb 14% each year, increasingly anchored to subscription payments.
- Online platforms will boost their share of video revenues from 29% in 2019 to 44% in 2024.
- Online video is growing 10% year over year.
- The overall video industry will see a 1.2% CAGR from 2019 for US$28 billion in advertising and subscription revenue by 2024.
- Online’s share will expand from 14% in 2019 to 22% in 2024, mainly driven by advertising.
- The video market will see an 8% CAGR from 2019, the fastest growth in the region, reaching almost US$20 billion by 2024.
- TV will still enjoy a robust 6% CAGR over that time.
- Online video will see a 22% CAGR and will account for 16% of video revenue by 2024, up from 9% in 2019.
- Video industry revenues will expand at a 4% CAGR from 2019 to reach US$11 billion by 2024,
- Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam will contribute almost 65% of that total.
- Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest video market, should grow 5% annually to 2024, bolstered by a 24% CAGR in online video.
Australia and New Zealand:
- 5% video industry CAGR from 2019 will create an almost US$11 billion market by 2024.
- Online’s share will reach 53% by 2024, up from 33% in 2019.
- Online video revenues will see a 17% CAGR from 2019
- Overall video revenue will chart 3% annual growth from 2019, surpassing US$10 billion by 2024.
Vivek Couto, executive director, MPA:
China remains at the forefront in online video scalability and innovation, although monetization models are starting to scale in other major markets. The growth of broadband connectivity and digital video platforms is driving new economic value for content creators, aggregators and sports-rights owners at a global and local level, helping seed digital ecosystems. That said, piracy and unpredictable regulation present key impediments to progress. Meanwhile, a still lucrative legacy TV industry continues on a low-growth trajectory in many markets, although under increasing pressure. In certain markets, the value erosion across legacy TV is unlikely to be replaced over the medium term but digital video monetization will grow and margins will recover as costs recalibrate.