Let’s dispense with the obvious; 2009 will be a tough year for the region’s marketing industry. Yet there are some trends amid the gloom that should enable marketers and agencies to steer a reasonably steady course. Given the shocks that have pulsated through the world’s economic system in recent months, though, one issue that almost everyone agrees is on this: everything is subject to change.
1 Expect the 30-second spot to make a triumphant return to the industry’s consciousness. Not that it ever really went away, of course, in a region where TV still reigns supreme. But marketers are considerably less likely to be distracted by the fancy digital offerings that have pushed 30-second spots onto the back foot in recent years. “It’s been almost heretical to recommend a TV ad, even though in many situations our ROI analysis still shows strong positive returns,” says Mindshare business planning leader James Chadwick. “However, I’d expect many companies to pull their horns in, postpone a lot of their fun experimentation, and focus their spend on getting maximum reach and share of voice with a 30-second spot.”
2 Digital will benefit, but not uniformly. There is enough evidence to indicate that the explosive growth predicted by some digital agencies will not materialise. “It could be the first to be cut, or not tried because clients have less experience and therefore comfort with it,” says MEC MediaLab director Jon Wright. “Or, since it is more real-time, transparent and transaction-related, it could receive a relative boost. It will vary by category, advertiser and marketer, but digital percentage of spend overall will grow.”
3 Marriage will become fashionable among media owners. INX Network chief strategy officer Peter Mukerjea says that, after the rapid proliferation of new media properties in several Asian markets in recent years, “consolidation is a given”. He adds: “The economics will drive this and we will see this across the board in different media - print, TV, outdoor, radio, internet, mobile. There are a lot of media companies which are in trouble and we will see a fallout as a result. The ones that come through this will be leaner and meaner particularly on the cost management front.”
Media Convergence CEO Didier Guerin, meanwhile, forecasts the growth of the “Australian model”, where two main newspaper owners and two main magazine publishers control 80 per cent of the market. “The medium-sized publishers will be bought and small media companies will mushroom.”
Expansionary players - Media Prima, TVB, Astro and MediaCorp - are likely to scale back plans, despite the bargains on offer in Western markets. “You’ll see massive localisation and nationalisation of media,” says Edelman regional president Alan VanderMolen.
4 The scattergun will become an important marketing wea-pon. Consumer thirst for discounts can be expected to result in a flurry of promotional campaigns. That will lead to “the resurrection of the worst kind of DM, scattergun offers,” says Sunshine managing partner Rob Campbell. “To the point where the market will be so cluttered with ‘offers’ that brand value in middle tiers could decline. I also see the rise of the dreaded letterbox drop, mainly because a lot of people wrongly think that’s the only driver to purchase.”
The emphasis on value will bring some benefits to marketers. “We should see more pressure to monetise any potential ad space, and more willingness from cash-strapped consumers to allow ad-funded content and services,” says Chadwick. “Expect free ad-funded SMS and other mobile content offers to take off.”
5 Social media will become more social. Combining the pursuit of value with the adoption of social media will see growth in what Chadwick calls ‘crowdshopping’, where large groups of buyers use their buying clout and exert bulk discounts. Also, expect competition for the creation of the ‘universal social currency’ to heat up. Facebook and Google have latched onto this need by launching services that allow users to port their profiles among various social networks. A critical issue for both media owners and advertisers, says Chadwick, will be balancing privacy concerns with the desire to be more ‘open’.
Media owners
- Increase frequency. Guerin points to the upcoming launch of bi-weekly Grazia in China as an example of how speed is becoming considerably more important to readers. Mukerjea calls this the ‘my time is prime time’ trend, and forecasts that the growth in media delivery mechanisms will lead to surging demand for quicker news and entertainment.
- Monetise everything. This year, consumers are probably not going to mind too much intrusion, if it results in better offers and discounts. So make the most of any unused ad-space out there.
- Connect the dots. If you haven’t started integrating traditional media with online and mobile, then you risk not being around in a year.
Marketers
- It is the oldest rule in the book, but it bears repeating: in a downturn, the brands that invest in marketing stand to gain much more. More transactional, direct-response media offer opportunities to spend a little more wisely and more accountably. A big, bold TV spot, meanwhile, can strike an emotional chord with consumers during uncertain times.
- Make search a campaign pillar. The ultimate ROI medium should come of age during the year ahead, but needs to be integrated more effectively with other campaign components if it is to fulfil its true potential.
- Take social media seriously. China’s angry netizens are ready to jump on any perceived slight, while bloggers love nothing more than exposing an astroturfing brand. Focus on cultivating strong relationships with genuine online influencers.
1 Expect the 30-second spot to make a triumphant return to the industry’s consciousness. Not that it ever really went away, of course, in a region where TV still reigns supreme. But marketers are considerably less likely to be distracted by the fancy digital offerings that have pushed 30-second spots onto the back foot in recent years. “It’s been almost heretical to recommend a TV ad, even though in many situations our ROI analysis still shows strong positive returns,” says Mindshare business planning leader James Chadwick. “However, I’d expect many companies to pull their horns in, postpone a lot of their fun experimentation, and focus their spend on getting maximum reach and share of voice with a 30-second spot.”
2 Digital will benefit, but not uniformly. There is enough evidence to indicate that the explosive growth predicted by some digital agencies will not materialise. “It could be the first to be cut, or not tried because clients have less experience and therefore comfort with it,” says MEC MediaLab director Jon Wright. “Or, since it is more real-time, transparent and transaction-related, it could receive a relative boost. It will vary by category, advertiser and marketer, but digital percentage of spend overall will grow.”
3 Marriage will become fashionable among media owners. INX Network chief strategy officer Peter Mukerjea says that, after the rapid proliferation of new media properties in several Asian markets in recent years, “consolidation is a given”. He adds: “The economics will drive this and we will see this across the board in different media - print, TV, outdoor, radio, internet, mobile. There are a lot of media companies which are in trouble and we will see a fallout as a result. The ones that come through this will be leaner and meaner particularly on the cost management front.”
Media Convergence CEO Didier Guerin, meanwhile, forecasts the growth of the “Australian model”, where two main newspaper owners and two main magazine publishers control 80 per cent of the market. “The medium-sized publishers will be bought and small media companies will mushroom.”
Expansionary players - Media Prima, TVB, Astro and MediaCorp - are likely to scale back plans, despite the bargains on offer in Western markets. “You’ll see massive localisation and nationalisation of media,” says Edelman regional president Alan VanderMolen.
4 The scattergun will become an important marketing wea-pon. Consumer thirst for discounts can be expected to result in a flurry of promotional campaigns. That will lead to “the resurrection of the worst kind of DM, scattergun offers,” says Sunshine managing partner Rob Campbell. “To the point where the market will be so cluttered with ‘offers’ that brand value in middle tiers could decline. I also see the rise of the dreaded letterbox drop, mainly because a lot of people wrongly think that’s the only driver to purchase.”
The emphasis on value will bring some benefits to marketers. “We should see more pressure to monetise any potential ad space, and more willingness from cash-strapped consumers to allow ad-funded content and services,” says Chadwick. “Expect free ad-funded SMS and other mobile content offers to take off.”
5 Social media will become more social. Combining the pursuit of value with the adoption of social media will see growth in what Chadwick calls ‘crowdshopping’, where large groups of buyers use their buying clout and exert bulk discounts. Also, expect competition for the creation of the ‘universal social currency’ to heat up. Facebook and Google have latched onto this need by launching services that allow users to port their profiles among various social networks. A critical issue for both media owners and advertisers, says Chadwick, will be balancing privacy concerns with the desire to be more ‘open’.
Media owners
- Increase frequency. Guerin points to the upcoming launch of bi-weekly Grazia in China as an example of how speed is becoming considerably more important to readers. Mukerjea calls this the ‘my time is prime time’ trend, and forecasts that the growth in media delivery mechanisms will lead to surging demand for quicker news and entertainment.
- Monetise everything. This year, consumers are probably not going to mind too much intrusion, if it results in better offers and discounts. So make the most of any unused ad-space out there.
- Connect the dots. If you haven’t started integrating traditional media with online and mobile, then you risk not being around in a year.
Marketers
- It is the oldest rule in the book, but it bears repeating: in a downturn, the brands that invest in marketing stand to gain much more. More transactional, direct-response media offer opportunities to spend a little more wisely and more accountably. A big, bold TV spot, meanwhile, can strike an emotional chord with consumers during uncertain times.
- Make search a campaign pillar. The ultimate ROI medium should come of age during the year ahead, but needs to be integrated more effectively with other campaign components if it is to fulfil its true potential.
- Take social media seriously. China’s angry netizens are ready to jump on any perceived slight, while bloggers love nothing more than exposing an astroturfing brand. Focus on cultivating strong relationships with genuine online influencers.
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