Indonesians are shopping through Ramadan 2026, but decision-making, what to buy, from whom, has fundamentally shifted. Advertising agency, Moonfolks' seventh annual whitepaper, finds that 'reach' has been dethroned by 'trust' as the primary currency for 2026. Instead of relying on secondary data, the agency conducted direct consumer interviews to understand what’s really driving behaviour.
Co-founder and chief strategy and digital officer Elki Hendria, explain: "The seventh edition of our Ramadan Whitepaper series, has been the most difficult to analyse. Because when the status quo persists for a long time and people go through feelings of despair, we need to dig deeper to understand them. No secondary data can provide us with the answers, so we took on the challenge of speaking directly with consumers," he said.
Three key patterns emerge.
First, purchasing power is quietly returning. There is no spending frenzy and consumers plan the spending carefully.
Second, trust has replaced reach. Decisions are increasingly shaped by recommendations and communities rather than mass campaigns.
Third, every purchase now requires both emotional and moral consideration.
One of the most interesting findings in this report is how religious values no longer function as a brake on consumption, but rather as a framework that determines which consumption is appropriate. Consumers do not reject shopping. They filter their purchases through questions they have never explicitly asked before: are these expenses in line with who I am and what I believe in?
This is a significant shift from 2024, when Moonfolks' whitepaper titled Sacred Commerce described the tug-of-war between faith and consumerism as a source of discomfort. In 2026, that tug-of-war is over, not because one side won, but because consumers have found a way to combine the two in their personal logic.
Of the total respondents, 62% plan their spending much earlier, 58% actively reduce impulse purchases, and 54% prioritize basic needs while still setting aside room for at least one "treat" for themselves. These figures are not a picture of frugality. They are a picture of structured consumption.
Moonfolks provides the most insightful analysis of the mudik. This report does not view mudik as a journey, but rather as a statement. The emotion that drives this year's homecoming tradition is not cost efficiency or transportation convenience, but dignity. Consumers don't just want to arrive. They want to arrive well.
This explains data that appears contradictory on the surface: a 7 percent increase in vehicle down payments, a 25 percent surge in equipment and clothing rentals, and a 31 percent increase in the use of BNPL schemes and group purchases. In the logic of frugality, these expenditures do not make sense. In the logic of social dignity, however, everything is coherent. Returning home is a moment when a person shows their family and community that everything is fine, and consumers are willing to allocate significant resources for that moment. Brands that understand this dimension are in a very different position compared to brands that only offer cheap travel tickets.
The most immediately relevant finding for marketers is this: consumers no longer see low prices as a sufficient reason to buy. Moonfolks frames this shift as a move from anti-consumption to anti-waste, and the distinction is important. Consumers in 2026 don't avoid spending. They avoid spending they can't justify to themselves.
What they are looking for is emotional assurance: that this product will remain relevant after Ramadan ends, that this purchase is a smart decision rather than a momentary temptation, that the brand they choose understands who they are. Promotions that lack a clear value narrative risk being interpreted as a sign of product weakness. Large numbers crossed out on banners are no longer enough to sway consumers who are accustomed to planning and exercising restraint. Brands need to learn to frame promotions as information, not persuasion.
The shift in trust is the most structural finding in this report. Now, 40% of buyers admit to relying on social media reviews, recommendations from people they follow, and peer-to-peer ratings before making a purchase. Meanwhile, 61% of internet users utilize the "send gift" feature to support content creators they trust. Trust has migrated from celebrities to communities, from mass reach to smaller, more intimate circles.
This is not your typical influencer marketing trend. What has changed is the validation mechanism itself. Consumers no longer wait for big brands to tell them what's good. They ask people they know and trust. The relevance of a campaign is no longer measured by how widely it is distributed, but how likely it is to be shared within an established network of trust.
In the context of donations, this shift is also noticeable: the 2026 report notes a threefold increase in digital zakat donations and a 40 percent rise in micro-donations, figures from Moonfolks' own research that have not been independently verified, but the trend is consistent with consumers' growing need to give through channels they trust and can track the impact of.
Three Ramadans that shaped these consumers
To accurately interpret the 2026 report, it is necessary to understand the origins of changes in Indonesian consumer behavior. The 2024 Moonfolks white paper, Sacred Commerce, describes consumers who are energetically consumptive but divided. With holiday bonuses in hand and promotions widespread, faith demands accountability for every rupiah spent. The tug-of-war is real, but it is a tug-of-war from a relatively comfortable position.
What changed everything was the erosion of the middle class. Between 2019 and 2024, nearly 9.5 million Indonesians will fall out of the middle class, from 57.3 million to 47.8 million. This group is the mainstay of domestic consumption and the primary target of almost all Ramadan campaigns. The loss of 9.5 million people from this group not only shrinks the market, it changes the market psychology.
Ramadan 2025 is the point when the pressure is felt most intensely: inThe Ramadan Reset whitepaper, Moonfolks records consumers cutting back on non-essentials, switching to local brands, and utilizing BNPL simply to survive.
In 2026, boycotts are no longer the main driver, but preferences for local communities and brands are becoming more deeply rooted, this time not because of external pressure, but because consumers have developed their own framework for thinking about when and why an expenditure is worthwhile. Consumers in 2025 react to pressure. Consumers in 2026 choose from a much stronger position.
What needs to be revised by the brand
Three years of research have painted a picture that cannot be ignored. The revival is real but quiet, invisible to brands that still measure Ramadan by transaction volume and campaign reach. Trust is now more valuable than reach, and that trust is built in communities, not on billboards. Every expenditure, no matter how small, now requires justification that consumers can personally accept.
Founder and CEO of Moonfolks as well as president director of Havas Moonfolks, Anish Daryani, summed it up succinctly: "When times get tough, the resilient will keep moving forward. That is the story of Indonesians in Ramadan 2026. As a community, we are tired of the constant economic uncertainty and living paycheck to paycheck. Consumers are making choices and choosing wisely. Brands need to understand this insight to succeed."
The Ramadan 2026 Whitepaper "From Resilience to Revival" by Moonfolks can be downloaded at moonfolks.com/white-paper/ramadan-2026.
Source: Campaign Indonesia
