Just 2% of senior marketers are very confident in measuring return on below-the-line (BTL) investment, and only 5% say they can accurately track brand impact. Yet despite this near-total measurement blind spot, marketers are bullish. Around 60% expect BTL budgets to hold steady next year, while 28% plan to increase spend in 2026.
That disconnect was found in the Activation Effectiveness Barometer research by Curious Nation conducted on independently on the platform, Ideally. The study, based on 87 senior marketers across Australia and New Zealand, is the first ANZ benchmark that examines how experiential, retail media, sponsorships and sampling are valued and measured.
One respondent summed up the core frustration: “The hardest part about proving the value of BTL activations? It’s connecting the dots between someone experiencing our brand and them actually buying it. Tracking the basics isn’t the problem. We can see who showed up, how engaged they were, and what they posted on social. That part’s straightforward. The real challenge is this: Can I prove that the person who attended our experiential event in January is the same person who bought in March? Right now, I can’t.”
- 60% expect BTL budgets to stay flat in 2026
- 28% expect increases
- 43% expect experiential investment to rise
- 41% expect growth in retail media
- 39% expect higher spend on digital/social amplification
Retail media continues to dominate BTL allocations: 75% of marketers direct their largest budgets toward in-store and retail activations. Experiential marketing, ie pop-ups, events and immersive brand experiences, is also heavily backed, with 55% ranking it among their top BTL levers. Yet almost a third say experiential work is their biggest measurement challenge.
The Barometer surveyed senior marketers in September, with 80% holding CMO, director or equivalent leadership roles across major categories.
AI is the new hope
Marketers expect technology to close that gap. There's strong optimism about AI.
Nearly seven in 10 (68%) believe AI will improve measurement and reporting, while 59% say it will change creative and activation planning, from sentiment analysis to adaptive optimisation.
“For the first time in Australia and New Zealand, we now have a clearer view of the pressure points marketers face in BTL activation and measurement,” said Meredith Cranmer, co-founder and managing director of Curious Nation.
The Activation Effectiveness Barometer will be published annually to track how BTL strategies evolve and to give marketers a clearer framework for benchmarking performance and accountability across Australasia.
'Experience is the heartbeat of activation, but proof comes too late'
Photo: Meredith Cranmer
Cranmer added that the findings reflect a long-standing disconnect between creative execution and demonstrable outcomes.
“For too long, activation has been undervalued because it hasn’t spoken the same measurement language as other parts of the marketing mix, ” she said. “Experience is the heartbeat of activation, it’s how people feel a brand, but too often measurement comes after the fact. We need to design proof into the experience itself so that emotion and evidence move together," Cranmer said.
Ideally’s strategic agency partner George Robertson added that the industry must shift from post-hoc reporting to “evidence by design.”
