Media investment from China’s top 500 brands is expected to plateau in 2026, according to Ebiquity's latest research, predicting zero growth next year with a possible contraction in 2027.
The new forecast presents a stark contrast to the optimistic macroeconomic outlook from global financial institutions, which expect China’s GDP to grow by 4.5% next year, as well the major agencies predicting more than 5% growth in media spending. Media costs are projected to remain modest at 1.2%, in line with will CPI inflation.
Key media spending figures and predictions from Ebiquity China:
- Overall Investment: Flat in 2026, potential contraction in 2027.
- Media Costs: A modest 1.2% increase in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025, marking five consecutive years of lower inflation.
- Channel Performance: E-commerce media costs are expected to rise by 2.0%, while TV and print media costs are projected to decrease by 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively.
- Industry Trends: Positive media budget trajectories are expected for electric vehicles, IT/mobile devices, and infant formula, while the FMCG sector is projected to stagnate. Budgets for luxury goods, alcohol, and traditional fuel vehicles are set to decline.
- Forecast Divergence: The big five international agency groups project average growth of 5.15% in 2026 and 5.06% in 2027.
In looking at a decade of data and insights from industry leaders, Ebiquity predicts 2026 will be a watershed moment for China’s media market, signalling a deeper structural transformation.
Traditional sectors such as FMCG and durable goods are shifting their focus from market expansion to precision targeting. With increasing customer acquisition costs and diminishing traffic dividends, advertisers are prioritising ROI measurement, investment transparency, and third-party audits.
Sector-by-sector snapshot:
- Infant Formula Sector: Strong performance will lead to significant media budget increases for 2026, focusing on digital channels for brand visibility and engagement.
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): Growth driven by market penetration and competition, with increased investments in digital marketing, experiential campaigns, and infrastructure-related messaging.
- Mobile Devices/IT: Steady gains fueled by AI, 5G adoption, and innovation; brands emphasise targeted digital ads and influencer collaborations.
- Healthcare (excluding prescription drugs): Growth from health-conscious consumers and an ageing population, focusing on educational content, KOL endorsements, and niche platforms.
- FMCG: Flat growth as brands shift budgets to performance-driven digital channels and live commerce, pressured on traditional brand-building.
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Luxury Goods: Budget cuts due to economic uncertainty; brands turn to to high-quality lifestyle platforms, private events, and VIP services instead of mass media.
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Alcohol: Declining media budgets as advertisers focus on e-commerce, KOL campaigns, and private traffic strategies amid consumption downgrades.
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Traditional Fuel Vehicles: Budget reductions driven by EV adoption, leading to lower spending on traditional campaigns.
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Pharmaceuticals: Volatility as policy changes affect spending, shifting focus toward patient education, specialized media channels, and medical initiatives
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Home Appliances: Marginal budget declines due to slowing innovation and increasing competition.
Comparison to big agency adspend outlooks
Ebiquity surveyed five major international agency groups—Dentsu International, HAVAS Media, MediaBrands, OMG, and WPP Media—regarding their outlook on media investment among China's top 500 brand advertisers for 2026. The overall sentiment indicates “caution prevails across the board.”
However the agencies forecast an average growth rate of 5.15% for 2026, only a slight decline from 5.46% in 2025. However, the individual projections vary significantly.
- OMG provides the most optimistic forecast at 7.6%, although this figure has decreased from 7.9% in 2025.
- WPP Media predicts a 4.0% growth rate, a slight increase from 3.7% the previous year.
- Dentsu International has significantly lowered its expectations, now projecting a 6.1% growth rate compared to 7.6% in 2025, reflecting more conservative spending by brand clients.
- Both Havas Media and MediaBrands estimate their growth around 4.0%, suggesting that growth has plateaued at these lower levels.
The outlook for 2027 shows growth declining to an average of 5.06%, reflecting challenges like consumer saturation and stricter budget oversight. OMG projects growth at 6.6%, while WPP Media forecasts only 3.8%, the lowest estimate.
In aggregate, the trends indicate that China's high-growth advertising era appears to be over.
China big five agency groups media spend forecast
- Digital Media Premiums: Ebiquity forecasts e-commerce media costs will rise by 2.0%, the highest among channels, as advertisers focus on direct conversion with clear attribution while avoiding “attribution illusions.” Ebiquity recommends implementing cross-channel attribution models to optimise performance and ensure additional value.
- Traditional Media Deflation: TV costs will decrease by 4.0%, and print media by 5.0%, creating opportunities for cost-effective brand-building campaigns while emphasizing audience quality and measurable outcomes. Ebiquity advises negotiating multi-year agreements to secure lower rates while enforcing strict audience quality standards.
China media cost inflation forecast: 2018-2026
