Sceptics query 33pc jump in China spend

SHANGHAI: China's second quarter adspend has rocketed by 33 per cent to US$3.8 billion over 2001, according to Nielsen Media Research, but media agencies are sceptical of the data. At most, they say it has climbed by 20 per cent.

Neilsen Media figures show that China's growth was helped higher by significantly heavier spend by categories such as shampoos/conditioners, professional services, toilet and liquid soaps, skin care, stomach medicine and mobile phones and accessories.

But ZenithMedia Shanghai vice-president of strategic resources, Zoe Tan, described the Nielsen figures as "unrealistically over-estimating the real situation".

"They monitor on ratecard but, because we work with clients, we know how they are spending. We also know how much more creative we have become and how much discounts we can get, she said,adding that the real rate of growth was below 10 per cent.

MindShare China national buying and implementation director, Simon Woodward, also said that 33 per cent was on the high side. "I would estimate that organic growth of main media was between 15 to 20 per cent maximum."

With no real alternative to Nielsen's figures, he added: "The China market is so complex, fragmented and, in some places, so lacking in proper measurements, that it is difficult to get a handle on the real situation. So guidelines are important."

CHINA: TOP 10 CATEGORIES (2002 Q2, USDOLLARS 000S)

Categories                           2002 Q2     2001 Q2     YOY %
                                                            change
Tonic & vitamin                      364,229     351,383        4%
Shampoo & conditioner                224,980     107,305      110%
Chinese OTC                          162,403     172,492       -6%
Professional service                 152,433      70,028      118%
Residential estate-sale/rental       148,093     119,762       24%
Toilet soap/liquid soap              109,844      37,526      193%
Skin care                            101,157      54,269       86%
Stomach medicine                      89,374      35,222      154%
Mobile phone & accessories            86,323      42,685      102%
Toothpaste & oral hygiene             85,679      36,138      137%

Source: Nielsen Media Research