The 2013 number is a downward revision from Carat's earlier prediction of 6.5 per cent; likewise the media agency reported 2012 growth of 4.9 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 6.8 percent. The agency's less optimistic forecasts rest on lowered expectations for growth in China, according to Nick Waters, CEO of Aegis Media Asia-Pacific.
"2012 saw a slower rate of growth in China than we have become used to, but this now looks likely to be the new norm into 2013 and beyond," he said. "The other large markets of Japan and Australia will show modest growth, with the markets of South and Southeast Asia delivering the highest growth in the region this year and into the foreseeable future."
Digital will continue to grow across all markets as more advertisers grasp the benefits of cross-platform communications, he added.
Globally, Carat now predicts 5.0 per cent growth for 2014, a large improvement over 2013's 3.7 per cent and 2012's 3.1 per cent. The agency sees Latin America leading the charge in 2014, with 14.8 per cent growth, led by Brazil's Olympics/World Cup bonanza driving 17.2 per cent growth in that country.
Investment in digital advertising will continue to increase, as a share of global advertising spend, by about two per cent each year, reaching more than 20 per cent of overall global advertising spend in 2014. Digital advertising is already the leading advertising medium in the UK, the Netherlands and Sweden, Carat noted.
