Even before former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was shown the door and the nation plunged yet again into a political 'now what', advertising gurus were chanting a slow growth mantra.
"The advertising industry this year will grow less than five per cent from 88 billion baht (US$2.3 billion) last year, unless a general election scheduled for October gives a clear picture of the new Government," said Far East DDB managing director Dan Zonmani at a press conference just days before the coup.
"Confidence in Thailand's business sector has been shaken by many negative factors, particularly an economic slowdown, political uncertainty and violence in the Southern region."
Most companies had adopted a 'wait and see' attitude, delaying outlays for advertising and marketing until the general election took place.
"If the general election takes place on schedule in October, it might boost confidence in the business sector, as companies will be able to know in which direction the country is headed and set business plans accordingly," Zonmani had said, predicting growth of eight per cent if all went well.
That, however, was before the tanks rolled in. Still, the coup has not resulted in drastic cutbacks in advertising budgets — so far.
"Except for a few events that had to be cancelled because of logistics, we have not been advised by our international clients to amend anything," says Hasan Basar, CEO, Bangkok PR.
"Also, it is still too early to predict what next year's budgets will be like. For example, local clients like Central World will have to see if any drop in foreign arrivals is a sustained dip or just a blip, before planning for the future."
Buoyed by the peaceful change in Thailand's power structure, many seem pragmatic about the industry's fate in post-coup Thailand.
"In the last couple of months, people were a bit wary of the growing divisions in the country and therefore adopted a delay tactic. Consumer confidence levels were continually declining and clients were hesitant to spend," said Anjmani Kavalee, chief executive officer, management, Bates Asia Thailand. "Things may improve now that there is more optimism and political stalemates have been resolved."
"The compact car segment can benefit a great deal as people prefer making safe and smaller investments," said Sohn Chongsrichan, CEO, Y&R Thailand. "Hopefully, the positives will trickle down to the advertising industry too."
Another sector which is hoping for an improvement in its fortunes is the liquor industry in Thailand.
"Under Thaksin's rule, we were getting completely quashed by the Ministry of Health," said a source requesting anonymity. "The total ban on liquor advertising, as well as trade restrictions, were no doubt set to come into play soon."
Though the succeeding Government is not expected to throw out the baby with the bathwater, liquor barons are hoping to renew a dialogue with the new law-makers.
While a Royal Decree, in force until election day, limits political parties to advertising only on billboards and Sky trains, there is little doubt that an election will bring clarity to the business environment in Thailand and may even stimulate companies to spend more.
