Growing competition, especially from satcasters, is pushing terrestrial players to raise the programming quality of their offering.
Because of increasing choice, no large-scale ratecard hikes are likely in many markets. The exception is China, where the continuing fast-pace of growth and new advertising restrictions to reduce clutter during prime-time are forcing prices higher.
Hong Kong - which will soon have about 150 channels from three cable stations and two terrestrial players - is the anomaly. Leading terrestrial operator TVB has hiked rates significantly, drawing widespread opposition, however, media agency planners say that advertisers will still advertise because of its dominant market share. But they add that cable is slowly eroding that share.
China
Although the country's biggest broadcaster, China Central Television (CCTV), is facing increasing competition from local stations, media agency planners expect ratecards to increase 10 to 20 per cent this year because the upside potential is still significant. In the primary cities, CCTV is up against Beijing TV's variety channel, Shanghai TV's drama channel and Guangzhou TV's Jade channel.
Lowe China media director, Michael Cheung, says: "In southern and eastern China, such as in Shanghai and Guangzhou, CCTV has to struggle against local stations as the latter's programming is tailored more closely to the tastes of the market they serve.
"But CCTV will remain the main choice of advertisers who want to target people nationwide in an efficient manner."
Cheung predicted that local broadcasters have the room to increase rates by between 15 and 20 per cent in terms of cost per rating point, while the rates for CCTV could be raised by up to 15 per cent.
India
There's nothing new in the fact that state-owned terrestrial broadcaster Doordarshan is still the leading TV channel in India - it has a 16 per cent channel share according to AC Nielsen's TAM Media Research. The top five channels in terms of average weekly reach are Doordarshan (51 per cent), Star Plus (34 per cent), Doordarshan News (32 per cent), Sony Entertainment Television (30 per cent) and Zee TV (28 per cent). Except for Doordarshan and DD News, they're all Hindi entertainment channels. It's pretty much the same when one measures cable and satellite households, except that the southern channels Sun TV (in Tamil) and Gemini TV (Telugu) also make the top five.
In terms of ad revenue, Star Plus is the leader, followed by Doordarshan, Sony, Sun TV, Gemini TV and Zee TV. Looking at viewership of different programming genres, it appears that special interest and niche channels are gaining ground in cable and satellite households. Mass entertainment's share of viewership dropped from 46.5 per cent in 2002 to 36 per cent in 2003, as measured by TAM's Peoplemeter system, and the share of sports channels jumped from four per cent in 2002 to 10 per cent in 2003.
Music channels went from one to two per cent, kids and news channels from two to three per cent, and Hindi films from three to four per cent on the back of launches of new satellite news channels (NDTV, Star News, Headlines Today) and others like The History Channel and Cartoon Network's POGO.
Ad rates by and large in 2003 remained constant, growing marginally for some genres. Elaborates S. Ravikiran, MD, Starcom West & South, "Star Plus and Aaj Tak marginally gained due to the further rise in popularity or competitors not doing well, but other major channels like Sony and Zee lost out. Regional channels also gained. Other genres like movies, music and news are consistent."
Hong Kong
Terrestrial operators TVB and ATV appear to be losing share to cable channels, which recorded a 91 per cent increase in advertising revenue last year, according to Nielsen Media Research.
This trend is likely to continue in the long term as more cable players enter the market - PCCW Now Broadband TV late last year and Galaxy this month, on top of long-established Cable TV.
Media agency strategists say the market will become much more cluttered and fragmented as a result. MindShare Hong Kong general manager Melanie Lo says: "When viewers are given more choice, their loyalty to a specific channel will decrease," adding, "Although it is still too early to predict what will happen, it is a certainty that it will become increasingly difficult for advertisers to effectively reach their targets via the TV platform, in particular, teenagers."
According to both Nielsen Media Research and Admango, terrestrial channels have been losing share to other media over the past five years: from 49 per cent in 1998 to 37 per cent last year.
Despite this, however, TVB - the leading terrestrial player - recently announced a rate hike of between nine and 28 per cent, a move which upset advertisers who cited an economy that was still on shaky ground.
Singapore
The battle between the long-established MediaCorp and newcomer SPH MediaWorks has led to an overall improvement in programming content.
MindShare Singapore managing director Manpreet Singh says: "Channel share fluctuates. They move based on programming mix and who has a hot programme."
Chinese-language viewers have given MediaWorks' Channel U a big thumbs up. Starcom Singapore associate director Elaine Poh says: "This reflects better programming." Among English language channels, MediaCorp's Channel 5 has managed to keep ahead of the SPH operator because of a better offering such as American Idol, Survivor, the Bachelor and Joe Millionaire.
Media agencies have given mixed signals on whether there would be a rate hike this year. A hike, they noted, would depend on the economy showing clear signs of a recovery. But while advertisers celebrate the positive impacts arising from increased competition, doubts remain over the market being able to support two broadcasters.
TBWA Singapore CEO Justin Barry says: "I wonder if having two media owners competing in this way is sustainable." He was echoing the possibility first raised by government leaders last year of a merger, given that both stations were haemorraging as a result of the competition.
Reporting by Christy Liu, Jimmy Yap and Malika Rodrigues.
TOP 5 LOCAL PROGRAMMES: TELEVISION'S TOP DRAWCARDS IN ASIA
CHINA - SHANGHAI
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
News Tou Shi SHXWZH 15.9
STV News Report SHXWZH 15.2
Guan Zhong Zhong Lai SHXWZH 12.3
Sheng Si Wo Di SHXWZH 11.5
En Qing SHXWZH 11.3
INDIA
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Kasautii Zindagii Kay Star Plus 11.41
Kyunki SAAS Bhi Kabhi Ba Star Plus 10.93
Kahaani Ghar Ghar Ki Star Plus 10.88
Des Mein Nikla Hoga Chan Star Plus 9.58
Sanjivani Star Plus 8.91
PHILIPPINES
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Happy 50th TV The Concert CH2 13.51
It Might Be You CH2 11.84
A Journey To Forever The CH2 11.81
Basta 'T Kasama Kita CH2 11.23
Starstruck CH7 10.42
TAIWAN
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Sun in the Highest II FTV 5.97
Sun in the Highest III FTV 5.64
Sun in the Highest FTV 5.39
Variety Big Brother CTV 5.23
Sunday 8 PM CTV 5.12
HONG KONG
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Point Of No Return TVBJ 33.5
Virtues Of Harmony TVBJ 32.9
T.I. Ski. TVBJ 32.7
Virtues of Harmony 2 TVBJ 29.4
Triumph I.Skies L.D. TVBJ 29.0
MALAYSIA
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Anugerah Juara Lagu (L) TV3 24.1
MIisteri Nusantara TV3 20.5
Senario TV3 20.5
999 (L) TV3 20.0
Majalah 3 (Live) TV3 18.5
SINGAPORE
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Star Awards 2003 Channel 8 24.4
Home In Toa Payoh Channel 8 12.4
Comedy Nite 2003 Channel 8 12.1
Sunday Prime Movie Channel 8 12.0
Sunday Prime Movie Channel 8 12.0
THAILAND
Programmes Channel TVR (%)
Cha Cha Cha Tah Rak CH7 16
Benja Kita Kwam Rak CH7 12
Derm Phan Wan Wi-Wa CH7 11
20.00 News CH7 11
Hong Hun CH7 11
Source: Nielsen Media Research, India source: TAM
