Chinese outbound travel is poised for a strong comeback in the September–November shoulder season, with global digital martech firm EternityX forecasting a 25% year-on-year increase in trips. Its latest report on China outbound travel estimates 155 million outbound journeys next year, with a potential US$250 billion boost to the global tourism economy.
The shoulder season, or the period between peak travel months, offers lower costs, thinner crowds, and more flexible itineraries. For Chinese travellers, this spans September and November, sandwiched between the October Golden Week and the December year-end holidays.
Confidence in overseas travel continues to climb, with nearly two-thirds of travel agents surveyed expecting full market recovery by the end of 2025.
"Chinese travellers are no longer just seasonal nomads, they're strategic planners seeking value, experiences, and cultural resonance," said Charlene Ree, CEO and Founder of EternityX in a press release. "Our report empowers brands to navigate this shift, turning shoulder-season curiosity into year-round loyalty through data-driven, culturally attuned strategies."
Boosted by lower costs, visa-free access, and avoiding crowds, EternityX identifies opportunities and target audiences in the report. It analyses key trends, noteworthy destinations, and the significance of September, as well as the super week in October.
Key trends for shoulder season travel
Growth is expected to be led by Gen Z explorers, affluent millennials, families, and silver travellers.
- Gen Z is booking via social platforms.
- Affluent millennials are looking for long-haul and wellness travel, they will fuel a Europe outbound recovery.
- Family/multigenerational groups are on the rise, with hotel bookings doubling year-on-year (+103%) during Labour Day, mostly for short-haul trips.
- Silver travellers are estimated to wield an estimated 6.7B USD in spending power.
- FIT travel dominates, as rising demand for self-drive (up 60%) is seen, while group tours remain 50% below pre-pandemic levels.
A big reason for outbound travel is the lax visa rules for Chinese nationals across Asia. Malaysia has recorded a 43% spike in hotel reservations, while Singapore continues to attract strong demand. South Korea is also witnessing a 48% increase in bookings, boosted by sustained global interest in Korean pop culture.
Beyond Asia, Chinese travellers are increasingly exploring Central and Eastern Europe. Bosnia reported a 28.7% rise in arrivals, and Serbia welcomed 88,000 Chinese visitors. Meanwhile, the Middle East is experiencing a boom in luxury and wellness tourism, with Abu Dhabi welcoming 1.4 million guests in Q1.
EternityX finds that 77% of outbound trips are booked within a month, and nearly half within two weeks, making September a critical window for pre-Golden Week planning.
The October Golden Week itself is expected to see 11.8–12.4 million outbound trips, with 72% of luxury bookings made between September 15–30. These trips are trending longer—10 to 14 days—and higher in spend, especially to Europe, Turkey, and Kenya.
