Although 2003 handed severe shocks to the global economic system - the Iraqi war and Sars among them - regional print spend appears to be finally emerging from a three-year slump.
Figures are still stained red, but the latest CMR data is at least showing a slowdown in the rate of decline. A total of US$162.6 million worth of advertising was booked into regional newspapers and magazines in the first nine months of last year, about 21 per cent down from the same period two years earlier, but just four per cent off the 2002 mark, according to CMR.
The slower rate of contraction has publishers feeling cautiously optimistic about the near term outlook, in sharp contrast to just over six months ago when the Asian economy took a turn for the worst after Sars and the war in Iraq broke out.
Publishers say advertisers have started spending again. In particular, hard-hit segments such as travel and tourism, and IT have returned in force in the last three months of 2003, more than offsetting the sharp drop in the second quarter. On this basis, publishers predict 2003 should end at about level with the previous year.
Time Asia associate publisher Ivy Choi says: "It's looking quite promising. This time last year, it was somewhat quiet. In the last few months, it has been comparatively quite active, especially in the hospitality and luxury products segments and there are more requests for proposals."
Added Asian Wall Street Journal advertising director Carla Vogler: "The proposals we have been asked to produce are for integrated, long-term campaigns, which is very different from the short-term view taken for much of last year."
However, some were more cautious about the near-term outlook. International Herald Tribune regional managing director Randy Weddle said that while advertisers were increasing their budget, "it has to be noted that quarter four was strong because of money unspent in quarter two".
The major blot on the horizon, according to Weddle, is that global geopolitical conflicts appear to be getting worse.
"We are still living in a very volatile world. The situation in Iraq is not improving and there is a new wave of terrorist attacks, most recently in Turkey. There's a possibility of Sars returning. It takes just one 9/11 or a Bali-type bombing to throw us all off course," Weddle says.
Newsweek's advertising director for South Asia, Theresa Yeung, adds: "I think that what we'll see is a bottoming out of the market. It's not going to be an instant pick-up because advertisers are worried about new shocks to the system. The general sentiment is still one of caution."
But the new-found sense of optimism is unlikely to filter through to the rate card, with publishers putting off rate hikes for the moment.
The exception is The Economist, which is putting up its rates by about six per cent worldwide. Rupert Harrow, The Economist advertisement manager for North Asia, said: "The magazine's circulation has risen by about four per cent overall so the cost per thousand is roughly the same."
In Asia-Pacific, The Economist's ABC-audited circulation edged past the 100,000 mark for the first time in the first half of this year, up about 3.3 per cent year-on-year.
"I am putting on more pages year-on-year and we're ahead of where we were last year. Many of our markets are performing strongly and Singapore has already made budget for the whole year. I think that our growth rate for 2003 will be around 10 per cent," Harrow says.
Over at Time, advertising revenue in the first nine months of this year climbed to $34 million, although the figure is still 10 per cent from the year-earlier period. Nevertheless Choi is optimistic: "Travel and tourism is strong again. Luxury products will continue to grow and it looks like telecom will come back so our full-year performance should be similar to 2002."
REGIONAL PRINT: is spending rebound in the works?
Top 10 titles Jan-Sept 2003 Jan-Sept 2002
1 Time 34,062,303 37,849,889
2 Asian Wall Street Journal 30,789,876 24,301,528
3 Newsweek 18,866,580 21,975,838
4 International Herald Tribune 10,838,390 8,972,753
5 Business Week 10,711,481 11,000,457
6 Far Eastern Economic Review 8,258,823 7,136,347
7 Fortune 8,104,226 10,117,660
8 Fortune China 7,066,807 6,734,103
9 Economist 6,783,591 7,694,138
10 Reader's Digest 5,615,902 7,988,375
Total market* 162,586,247 168,898,700
* Consists of 21 titles. Apart from those mentioned above the others
are: Yazhou Zhoukan, Financial Times, Business Week China, Forbes
Global, National Geographic, Asiamoney, USA Today, Business Traveller,
Scientific American, Harvard Business Review and Asian Business
Source: CMR.
