Live commerce is rapidly transforming global retail into a $2 trillion attention-driven powerhouse and is poised to become the future of shopping. Originating in China and now expanding worldwide, it is set to revolutionise ecommerce over the next decade.
According to the latest research from Stickler’s Global Live Commerce Market Outlook 2030, live commerce outside China is expected to jump from around US$60-70 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2023 to an eye-popping $2 trillion by 2030. The US and Europe alone could generate about $1.2 trillion of that total, making live commerce a major growth engine, not just a passing trend.
China’s lightning-fast rise offers a telling example. Livestream shopping exploded from almost nothing in 2016 to nearly ¥5 trillion (US$675 billion) in 2023, accounting for over 23% of the country’s online retail market. Douyin, TikTok’s Chinese cousin, is a front-runner. Merchant-led livestreams made up 70% of all streams in 2024 and grew 113% year-on-year, fuelling about 60% of Douyin’s total GMV.
Dominic Powers, CEO for APAC & LATAM at Stickler, gives a sharp reality check on why many global brands still struggle with live commerce despite China’s clear success. “Brands outside China keep copying the surface of live commerce without digging into how it really works,” he says. “They think it’s ‘QVC plus Instagram.’ But in China, we’re seeing version 2.0: continuous streaming, frictionless checkout, merchant-led shows, not just influencer vanity projects.” He stresses, “Live commerce isn’t a campaign or a checkbox. It’s an entire ecosystem. You can’t just book a celebrity once a month and expect exponential growth.”
Asia-Pacific: Leading the charge
Outside China, Southeast Asia leads the charge. Live commerce now represents 15-20% of total e-commerce in markets like Indonesia and Thailand. TikTok Shop’s arrival set off a boom, with GMV in the region leaping from $4.3 billion in 2022 to $16.3 billion in 2023, making TikTok the second-largest player after Shopee. Powers points out the core lesson for brands. “It’s not about one-off influencer events. The winners build live commerce into their daily operations, with dedicated teams and data-driven optimisation.” He adds, “Talent and process are the real bottlenecks, not technology.”
However, many brands still miss the mark, and Powers has noticed a pattern. “Brands rush to hire influencers for flashy shows, then find the ROI doesn’t stack up. They switch to affiliates who deliver cheaper, lower-quality streams, and eventually realise they need to go live themselves to control brand and cost.” He adds, “I’ve yet to meet a brand leader who watches their own streams closely. If they did, they’d realise how much better things could be.”
TikTok Shop’s US debut in late 2023 further proved live commerce’s global appeal. Early stats suggest the platform drove over $1 billion in monthly sales by late 2024, with estimated annual GMV around $13 billion. Regulatory uncertainties and fears of a ban have made some major brands wary, but Powers warns they risk missing out. “TikTok Shop is a treasure trove for product discovery—83% of users find new products there. Not being on it means missing access to a highly engaged audience.”
A big challenge in the US is the overdependence on influencers. Powers explains, “In the US, influencer-led streaming dominates. But Asia’s live commerce is more retail-led, with hosts who act like in-store salespeople across many brand channels. The real sales come from volume and network effects, not just star hosts.” He compares it to physical retail. “You have flagship stores for buzz, but most sales come from your local shops. The same applies here.”
Europe and Latin America are also warming up to live commerce. TikTok Shop launched in key European markets with notable retailers such as Carrefour (France) and About You (Germany) signing on from day one. Powers explains that Europe’s live commerce style is still emerging: “European live streams tend to be polished and scheduled, closer to TV shopping. But over time, it’ll likely blend with Asia’s casual, continuous streams.” Latin America’s market is young but primed for growth with TikTok launching in Mexico and Brazil recently.
Other platforms are also ramping up. YouTube’s partnership with Shopee brings live shopping to Southeast Asia, and it’s exploring second-screen experiences that blend long-form content and commerce. Meta is cautiously re-entering live commerce with new Instagram–Amazon integrations and is focused on embedding shopping natively across its apps. Amazon Live continues steady progress, integrating live content into Fire TV and retail pages, while startups like Whatnot are building niches in collectibles and streetwear, inspiring a new generation of micro-entrepreneurs.
Winners treat live streams as core to retail and marketing
Powers highlights the evolving role of live commerce in brand strategy. “This isn’t just about flash sales or discounts. The winners treat live streams as part of their core retail and marketing engine. Some Chinese brands built their entire business on it, mixing entertainment, education, and trust.” He cautions against discount dependency. “Excessive promotions can dilute brand value and train customers to wait for deals.”
Behind the scenes, delivering live commerce at scale requires serious operational muscle. Brands must invest in studios, content calendars, inventory synchronisation, tech reliability, and host training. Powers says, “Great hosts are salespeople, entertainers, and customer service reps rolled into one. It’s a new discipline. Co-hosting, mod tools, and audience engagement tactics raise the game. And don’t forget aftercare—quick follow-up and returns matter.”
Live commerce also demands rigorous content and brand management. “Brands must balance authenticity with control. Early missteps, like hosting unvetted influencers or chaotic streams, can hurt brand equity,” says Powers. He emphasises the importance of moderation tools and adherence to advertising rules, especially in regulated markets.
From a marketing perspective, live commerce marks a shift from interruption ads to engagement marketing. “You’re earning 30-to-90-minute blocks of genuine attention,” Powers explains. “That’s far more valuable than a quick banner ad. Brands are learning to measure impacts beyond immediate sales, watch time, comments, and follower growth all matter.” Some are even launching new products first via live streams.
Looking ahead, Powers expects live commerce to become fully interactive and integrated into everyday digital life by 2030. “The line between social media and shopping will blur completely. Gen Z and Gen Alpha expect video demos and live chat as standard,” he predicts. Augmented reality and AI will layer in new experiences, AR try-ons, live translations, and smarter moderation.
For brands sitting on the sidelines, Powers offers a blunt warning. “If you’re not taking live commerce seriously, you’re putting your business at risk. The younger generation is there now. You can fuss over the metaverse or AI, but live commerce is driving real revenue.”
With contributions from Nikita Mishra.
