By CMR's reckoning, Asia has yet to shake off the hangover from last year's slump. Only a handful of titles have managed to stay in the black; the majority - reflecting the large body of anecdotal evidence - have slipped by varying degrees into the red. And judging by the extent of the decline - about 24 per cent - it leaves little room for optimism that the region is any closer to getting out of the woods.
There are far too many "what ifs hanging over Asia at this stage for marketers to be anything but cautious. One big "if is whether the US consumption boom will finally run out of steam? That alone should send shivers down the region's collective spine only because so much of Asia's growth still hinges on continued spending by American consumers.
A second wild card is China even though it's proving to be the main driver of economic and adspend year-on-year growth. But China's membership in the WTO is going to inflict more pain on locals in the short-term. Job losses are starting to mount in line with the economic restructuring underway and that could deal a heavy blow to Chinese consumer confidence, much as is the case in Japan, now fighting the twin scourges of long-running deflation and rising unemployment. That may account for the very rough ride joint-venture car companies are having in China right now, as consumers delay purchases until heavy tariffs are dropped in line with WTO rules.
That said, Asia has just as many upside factors. The regional population remains a very young one, and the consumer boom has yet to grip huge swathes of Asia. An upturn is on the cards, but it won't be a significant one this year.
