VIEWPOINT: Asia will need to look within region for growth this year

<p>It's happening a continent away, but agencies in Asia are </p><p>nevertheless nursing a bad case of deja vu. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>The late '90s collapse of the Thai baht and its domino-like impact on </p><p>other regional currencies has returned with frightening clarity. And </p><p>with it, shivers that a slowing US economy will drag the region </p><p>down. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Not that the US today is anywhere near Asia's crisis scenario of the </p><p>previous decade, but jitters in the US have started infecting the still </p><p>buoyant agency mood in this part of the world. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>So what's in store for Asia? Will the region's recovering economies have </p><p>enough momentum to drive the turnaround? Or will the recessionary bug, </p><p>which appears poised to draw blood from the American economy, do the </p><p>same to Asia? </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Anecdotal evidence suggests this may already be happening. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Regional titles have been looking thinner than usual. Publishers have </p><p>however insisted that this has less to do with the US bug, but more to </p><p>do with ad booking patterns that are in keeping with historical first </p><p>quarter performance. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Indeed, the feeling is that anyone talking about a slowdown only makes </p><p>him or herself the target of ridicule. But is this nothing more than </p><p>hubris? </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>They may spout some of the most bullish lines around, but it is apparent </p><p>that ad agencies have started toeing a more cautious line, staying well </p><p>within budgets as they watch events in the US unfold. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>With lessons from the late 90s - highlighted by the dramatic collapse of </p><p>BBDO's Hub - seared in Asia's collective memory, agencies don't want to </p><p>be caught napping this time around should things take a turn for the </p><p>worse. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>After all, it was only a year ago that Asia began its spectacular </p><p>recovery from the slump. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>On the one side, ACNielsen and MindShare are optimistic that the </p><p>region's adspend levels will continue to grow, albeit at more moderate </p><p>rates. The worst case scenario calls for China to grow by just 20 per </p><p>cent, down from 60 per cent last year. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>But doomsayers believe more harrowing times are in store for Asia. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>And their arguments do also carry plenty of weight. The last recession </p><p>was Asia-created and it was the US which rescued Asia from a prolonged </p><p>slump. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>This time round, the recession is likely to be US-created and there is </p><p>no white knight to mount a similar rescue of the US or any other economy </p><p>that falters in its wake. Which makes it imperative for companies here </p><p>to look within the region for growth momentum. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Admittedly that may sound like mission impossible. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Japan is still tanking; its finance chief finally admitted that the </p><p>economy was again creeping into recession. Despite several pump-priming </p><p>initiatives, consumers have been unwilling to spend and this thrift </p><p>mentality is not expected to change anytime soon. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>But surely, there is more to Asia than Japan. China appears relatively </p><p>healthy, as do Hong Kong and Singapore. Korea has its problems, but </p><p>vital signs are again relatively strong. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>So while it pays to be cautious, hopefully agencies and clients won't </p><p>let the gloomy build-up affect them too much. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Or we may find ourselves in a situation similar to the US, where </p><p>perception more than reality is driving the economy to the brink. </p><p><BR><BR> </p>