Estimates for the whole of 2001 and this year's first quarter are equally gloomy.
As publishers search for ways to remain competitive, their efforts have fallen on two main areas: China and the offer of more market segmentation choices to advertisers.
The market that beckoned Western businesses in the past two decades, China, is again proving a magnet for publishers banking on dividends arising from its membership in the World Trade Organisation. But China isn't an easy nut to crack - a regulatory environment that favours Chinese media enterprises, bureaucracy, censorship, corruption, counterfeiting and the thorny issue of repatriating profits are just some of the obstacles blocking the way.
It's hoped that membership in the WTO will help remove most of these obstacles over the next five years. A number of early birds have attempted to capitalise on the potential China offers. Among them, Business Week has been a pioneer since launching Business Week China in 1986 together with the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation (MOFTEC).
The magazine - which until the end of last year carried stories translated from the English edition - celebrated its 15th anniversary recently by announcing the introduction of editorial sourced in China. The local input comes in the form of columns written by prominent mainland opinion leaders; the first piece was penned by Wu Jing Lian, a top economist and researcher of the Development Centre of the State Council. Business Week Asia vice-president and managing director, Alan Lammin, says the concept for the Chinese edition is visionary, especially when other media owners are only now scrambling to get into the market. The key, he says, is "to be residents in the region in which we operate, not just visitors".
Newsweek, meanwhile, will publish its second Chinese-language special at the end of the month, and more - at least another six - are in the pipeline. The 96-page issue, titled Health for Life, will have a print run of more than 300,000, targeting the upper middle class in Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai, and to a lesser extent Hong Kong and Taipei.
The special publication is being produced in association with Sino World Media, a newly-established company which specialises in facilitating the entry of foreign media owners into China.
Its managing director, Steven Poon, a former general manager of China Light & Power and a member of the Hong Kong legislature between 1991 and 1995, says Health for Life is based on the Newsweek's worldwide series of special issues.
"The Chinese version of Health for Life was produced by our mainland publishing partner, Popular Medicine, which will also likely produce a special on baby care and welfare later this year. In total, we have the licence to publish a total of six Newsweek specials in Chinese but we will carefully choose our publishing partner to match skills with content,
says Poon.
Newsweek Asia-Pacific advertising director, Theresa Yeung, is hopeful that the venture will signal the start of something new.
"We would like to publish a regular Chinese issue but we need to work out the mechanics. I believe WTO will create a conducive environment for us. It's a matter of time and planning,
she says.
Time, the leading regional weekly, is also planning something similar.
Associate publisher Ivy Choi says there are no plans as yet to enter the mainland with a local language version, while adding, "we'll surely be in China in Chinese, but most probably with ad hoc Time-branded issues".
Dow Jones has also stepped into the market though its sights for this service are trained on the Chinese diaspora around the world. Wall Street Journal Online's new Chinese-language service - Chinese.wsj.com - is positioned as a 24-hour business and financial news site.
Although it is marketed to Chinese speakers in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia as well as overseas Chinese living in the West, it is believed that Dow Jones' ultimate aim is to hook top mainland business players, serving as a precursor to a Chinese print edition.
However, not all regional titles are looking at producing a Chinese edition.
One of them is The Economist. Advertising director Tim Pinnegar says it is more important to get the circulation right.
"The market in China will have tremendous potential for regional advertisers over the next 10 years. Once current restrictions on distribution are eased, a major hurdle to circulation growth will be removed. However, the key is circulation growth among the right people."
According to Pinnegar, The Economist has no plans at the moment to publish a Chinese edition. "Firstly, English is the business language of the world and will be in China too over time. Secondly, if The Economist were published in different languages much of its unique style and meaning would be lost."
Reader's Digest is also trying to grapple with the issues that affect a smooth entry into China. To date, the monthly is working on obtaining a licence to publish with advertising. More than a year ago, it published a China edition without advertising, with all 100,000 copies selling out within days at the newsstands.
Associate publisher, Peter Jeffery, says: "China has massive appeal for us and it is quite easy to sell small numbers of the magazine, but what we want is a penetration of millions of households but in order to do that we must have an absolutely foolproof guarantee to publish."
On a different front, regional publishers are also placing a greater emphasis on offering customised solutions for clients, including allowing for more market-by-market segmented choice.
This tactic prevents the titles from sliding into a price war and commoditising the industry's products.
Time's Choi says that the magazine engages in creative selling which means acting as the client's consultant in order to help integrate campaigns.
"This also involves customising events for advertisers like the fashion show we staged to showcase products from Ferragamo and Alfred Dunhill," she adds.
Newsweek's Yeung says that the days of simply taking ad bookings are long gone because advertisers are increasingly focusing on integrating their campaigns.
"Normally, we work with both the client and the agency; above-the-line, below-the-line and from the PR point of view. We started this a few years ago to bring added value to a client's marketing campaign. Today, this could even include setting up a jointly-branded (internet) microsite to promote a certain product or service."
She says providing an environment to give advertisers more choice over which markets they want to be in, rather than simply dishing up the region as a whole is a key to staying viable in today's slumping market.
Reader's Digest is a leader in this field and the magazine even has the capability to offer a demographic segment across several markets, such as Chinese readers in Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong.
The magazine has the additional capability of combining its other assets - books and CDs on a range of topics including computers, health, food, DIY and travel - into advertising packages.
Reader's Digest's Jeffery says: "Suppose we publish a book on computers in a certain market. This gives us the opportunity to tie in a product of an advertiser with the magazine
"Having the flexibility to lock into a client's integrated campaign and combine that with our other products and deliver this to a unique audience, which the advertiser wants with as little wastage as possible, is how everyone is moving forwards."
However, there were sceptics, especially among media planners and buyers, who argue that split advertising issues do not mean much if comparable local titles exists with a lower CPM.
CIA Hong Kong director, Dominic Wong, says: "In markets like the Philippines and Indonesia, the regional titles would work because there are very few quality publications there.
"However, in places like Hong Kong and Singapore, there are many upscale magazines, so it is more difficult to sell a regional title to a client wanting just one or two markets."
But The Economist's Tim Pinnegar said that regional titles offered a high concentration of affluent readers.
"Say you wanted to reach the top business people in Hong Kong. That population would probably be 10,000. I'm pretty sure the regionals could get at least six-out-of-10 of them. A local title would achieve just one-out-of-50."
