MEDIA: Comment - The rules for media as Minority Report future materialises

If you're a journalist or a media buyer, were you thrilled or terrified by Minority Report, last year's Spielberg/Cruise blockbuster? Not by the creepy Precogs or the dystopian culture of surveillance, but by the sight of those flickering, live-action newssheets on the future subway, updating their moving-picture articles and weather reports in real time.

Right now in the US, the Federal Communications Commission is bringing that future a little closer. In some ways, it already is. I read Microsoft Reader-format e-books on my PDA in the MTR every morning and evening.

It gives me a format that is more convenient than printed paper - I can download a huge library of free classics. If I want to take a magazine rather than a book, then most major titles now have an online version for download offering most of the printed content, for free. And many major new fiction and business titles can now be downloaded at their original US/UK prices, rather than the inflated prices we pay for print in Asia.

Where is all this leading? Media professionals should remember that print still takes a huge share of the adspend pie. So a seismic shift is liable to have a disproportionate impact on media buying and marcoms. And in about a decade, newspapers and magazines as we know them will be historical relics like the horse buggy.

Heard it before? Consider this: if you can broadcast a magazine, with 100 per cent the same quality as print, but update it on the fly over ubiquitous wireless networks, or even via docking stations, why go to the huge expense and effort of printing it on giant presses and distributing it through a fleet of trucks? The global information networks will do it instantly, for free. All that is needed is the right reading device, and as said, these are almost right here right now. Once they come to market in a truly consumer-friendly format and price point, the pressure for change will be irresistible.

The corollary to this is that the News Internationals of this world will bring their print and broadcast/online operations ever closer together.

The FCC is soon to vote on a removal of cross-ownership between newspapers and broadcast networks. According to the Media Center at the American Press Institute, some 52 US newspapers have partnered with TV stations.

Certainly, there are huge issues of control surrounding media consolidation.

But the technological shift is inescapable. Then "print" advertising and media relations will be operating in a whole new ball game. Firms ready for this will be queuing up to eat the lunches of those who can't. Instead of daytime-minutes on TV screens, media planners will be bidding for seconds on morning news downloads. And the big media groups will be more integrated and more influential than ever, in a world where content delivery has been freed from physical limitations but content consolidation enshrined in commercial law.

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