All things considered, Asia appears to have gotten off quite
lightly by comparison to most Western markets this year.
Redundancies, closures, down-sizings and reduced earnings were a fact of
life for much of the region in a year many would sooner forget. But at
the end of the day, while the shock of the September 11 attacks was
immense, the economic pain was never as deep as it has been in the US or
even Europe. In most major Western markets, a rebound in advertising,
the first sign that a recovery is underway, is only expected to happen
in late 2002.
Contrast this with Asia. In some of the region's more resilient, read
that to mean protected, economies - chiefly China - the bigger problem
was media inflation. Then again, China does sometimes function quite
contrary to market conditions. The unilateral decision to cancel
television advertising contracts in Shanghai late into the year is
perhaps the most potent demonstration that the mainland is at times a
law unto itself. The bigger question is how will media inflation fare in
the new year? Things could go either way, but there are a number of
factors to believe that China could pull another rabbit out of the hat
for the media industry
Not least is the mainland's very deliberate effort to strengthen its
media businesses even as it opens the door, only slightly, to foreign
competitors. On top of consolidating its TV stations, China is now
attempting to do the same to its unruly cable TV market through
state-owned China Cable Network. A US$5 billion war chest should
go a long way in dominating the cable sector. Fewer players can only
mean that rates have just one way to go - up.
Plus, China's seemingly resilient economy continues to pull in investors
and a bigger share of regional advertising spend. That should help
regional spending rebound, as Zenith Optimedia predicts, but it could
also spell a tougher year for the rest of Asia.
