HONG KONG: Adspend in Asia-Pacific is forecast to rise a modest two
per cent next year to US$71.2 billion after this year's likely
dip of an estimated one percentage point, according to figures released
by Zenith Optimedia.
By 2004, total regional spend is expected to hit US$78 billion,
according to Zenith
In the meantime, Zenith regional director, Roland Crouch, said the
outlook was cautious because Japan and Korea - two of the biggest
advertising markets in Asia - are bearing the brunt of the current
economic slowdown and the after-effects of September 11.
The level of advertising spend in Japan this year slipped one per cent
to US$41.6 billion, while Korea's tumbled 10 per cent to
US$5.9 billion.
Both countries are tipped to turn in a flat performance in 2002. The
regional forecast, however, is better than expected because the
worst-case scenario - an adspend contraction - had looked increasingly
likely after the September terrorist attacks on the United States.
Major markets like Hong Kong and Singapore are expected to put on seven
per cent and two per cent respectively this year.
With Korea and Japan ailing, China and India have stepped in to hold up
regional advertising spend levels.
China's advertising expenditure shot up five per cent to US$5
billion in 2001 and the forecast is for the figure to jump another nine
per cent next year. India surged 10 per cent to US$1.75 billion
and another 10 per cent jump is on the cards for 2002.
Crouch believed that a contraction was unlikely, even in the worst-case
scenario. "People can slash and cut their budgets but at some point they
must start investing in their brands again to keep them alive."
He added that China would likely continue growing strongly because of
the country's entry in the World Trade Organisation and its hosting of
the Olympic Games in 2008.
India is another nation on a fast track growth curve. Mahushree Ramani,
brand communications director of Zenith India, said: "Much of the growth
is being fuelled by the growth of the middle class, including in second
tier cities. However, the biggest change has been that the country has
moved from being savings to spending-oriented."
Global adspend fell three per cent this year to US$324.9 billion,
however, Zenith Optimedia predicted the figure would rebound in 2002,
edging up about one per cent.
Crouch said that the forecast took into account expected discounts in
each market in order to understand the real underlying spends.
"Our offices in markets where we have a presence have been in rate
negotiations with client and media owners for next year, so we have a
good feel for where the market is in terms of pricing."
GLOBAL ADSPEND FORECAST (USdollars M)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
North America 149,572 141,039 139,166 141,642 147,687
Europe 77,572 75,971 77,290 80,282 84,285
Asia-Pacific 70,464 69,760 71,188 74,234 78,034
Latin America 21,172 20,775 21,682 23,685 26,118
Rest of the world 8,720 8,824 9,433 10,346 11,428
Major media total 327,500 316,369 318,759 330,189 347,551
Internet 7,661 8,488 9,709 11,220 12,903
Total including internet 335,161 324,857 328,469 341,409 360,454
SOURCE: ZenithOptimedia
