Zenith tips Asia spend will rebound to US$71b

<p>HONG KONG: Adspend in Asia-Pacific is forecast to rise a modest two </p><p>per cent next year to US$71.2 billion after this year's likely </p><p>dip of an estimated one percentage point, according to figures released </p><p>by Zenith Optimedia. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>By 2004, total regional spend is expected to hit US$78 billion, </p><p>according to Zenith </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>In the meantime, Zenith regional director, Roland Crouch, said the </p><p>outlook was cautious because Japan and Korea - two of the biggest </p><p>advertising markets in Asia - are bearing the brunt of the current </p><p>economic slowdown and the after-effects of September 11. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>The level of advertising spend in Japan this year slipped one per cent </p><p>to US$41.6 billion, while Korea's tumbled 10 per cent to </p><p>US$5.9 billion. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Both countries are tipped to turn in a flat performance in 2002. The </p><p>regional forecast, however, is better than expected because the </p><p>worst-case scenario - an adspend contraction - had looked increasingly </p><p>likely after the September terrorist attacks on the United States. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Major markets like Hong Kong and Singapore are expected to put on seven </p><p>per cent and two per cent respectively this year. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>With Korea and Japan ailing, China and India have stepped in to hold up </p><p>regional advertising spend levels. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>China's advertising expenditure shot up five per cent to US$5 </p><p>billion in 2001 and the forecast is for the figure to jump another nine </p><p>per cent next year. India surged 10 per cent to US$1.75 billion </p><p>and another 10 per cent jump is on the cards for 2002. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Crouch believed that a contraction was unlikely, even in the worst-case </p><p>scenario. "People can slash and cut their budgets but at some point they </p><p>must start investing in their brands again to keep them alive." </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>He added that China would likely continue growing strongly because of </p><p>the country's entry in the World Trade Organisation and its hosting of </p><p>the Olympic Games in 2008. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>India is another nation on a fast track growth curve. Mahushree Ramani, </p><p>brand communications director of Zenith India, said: "Much of the growth </p><p>is being fuelled by the growth of the middle class, including in second </p><p>tier cities. However, the biggest change has been that the country has </p><p>moved from being savings to spending-oriented." </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Global adspend fell three per cent this year to US$324.9 billion, </p><p>however, Zenith Optimedia predicted the figure would rebound in 2002, </p><p>edging up about one per cent. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>Crouch said that the forecast took into account expected discounts in </p><p>each market in order to understand the real underlying spends. </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>"Our offices in markets where we have a presence have been in rate </p><p>negotiations with client and media owners for next year, so we have a </p><p>good feel for where the market is in terms of pricing." </p><p><BR><BR> </p><p>GLOBAL ADSPEND FORECAST (USdollars M) </p><p> 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 </p><p>North America 149,572 141,039 139,166 141,642 147,687 </p><p>Europe 77,572 75,971 77,290 80,282 84,285 </p><p>Asia-Pacific 70,464 69,760 71,188 74,234 78,034 </p><p>Latin America 21,172 20,775 21,682 23,685 26,118 </p><p>Rest of the world 8,720 8,824 9,433 10,346 11,428 </p><p>Major media total 327,500 316,369 318,759 330,189 347,551 </p><p>Internet 7,661 8,488 9,709 11,220 12,903 </p><p>Total including internet 335,161 324,857 328,469 341,409 360,454 </p><p>SOURCE: ZenithOptimedia </p><p><BR><BR> </p>