Zenith has raised its prediction for 2019 global adspend growth from a 4.0% marker set in December to a new forecast of 4.7%, reaching US$623 billion. In addition, the company said it has increased growth forecasts for 2020 from 4.2% to 4.6%, and for 2021 from 4.1% to 4.6%. That said, Zenith still expects growth in adspend to trail behind growth in the global economy, after it managed to keep pace in 2018.
In 'Fast-track Asia' (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam), growth is slowing now that some markets, notably China, have achieved substantial scale. However, Zenith still expects average 6.8% annual growth for this block through 2021.
Japan, by contrast, remains stuck in a "rut of persistent low growth", with forecast growth of 1.7% a year between 2018 and 2021, compared with 2.4% between 2013 and 2018.
In 'Advanced Asia' (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea), Adspend grew just 2.6% in 2018, but picked up as the year progressed. The forecast now calls for 3.6% growth in 2019, and 3.5% annually through 2021.
Between 2018 and 2021 global advertising expenditure will increase by US$87 billion, according to the forecast. The US will contribute 37% of this extra ad expenditure, followed by China (19%), India (5%) and Indonesia and the UK (3% each).
Five APAC markets are among the 10 largest contributors, and four of them, plus Russia and Brazil, make up a group of fast risers that will together contribute a third of new dollars.