If ESPN Star Sports (ESS) is breathing easier these days, it's all down to the 11th hour cancellation of India's acrimonious cricket tender, which at one point saw rival Zee TV win broadcast rights for the country's favourite sport (Media, September 24).
Analysts believe ESS had more to lose had the cricket board stuck to its decision to hand the four-year deal at a whopping US$308 million to Zee.
While the payout had been described as unsustainable by the industry, ESS' willingness to up its initial bid of $230 million to match Zee's amply underlines the sports channel's determination - some say desperation - to secure the rights.
Indeed, without cricket, Zee still has a bouquet of entertainment channels to fall back on. But ESS essentially banks on the playing field, with cricket being crucial to it extending its appeal and success in the sub-continent.
R S Venkatesh, ESPN Software India's managing director, debunks the observation, saying the channel has a broad-based portfolio, which includes cricket telecast rights for six other markets.
Nevertheless, losing the rights to such a lucrative property for four years would seriously hobble ESS' ability to compete against Zee, say analysts. As CVL Srinivas, Maxus managing director, notes, cricket is not only used to used to drive airtime and distribution revenues, but the sport also provides opportunities to promote a broadcaster's other programmes and ventures. "That's why general entertainment channels bid exorbitant prices for cricket rights. That's what led Zee to outbid ESS," Srinivas says.
Nitin Jain, general manager of Group M, adds: "Without cricket, selling other sports to the advertisers and cable operators will be a big challenge."
Which explains why - despite analysts' observations that neither channel would be able to recoup the bid investment from sponsorships or advertisements alone - ESS intends to restart its fight for the rights once the tender process moves out of the law court.
As media agencies note, cricket ad rates have peaked and are likely to hover between $2,000 to $4,000 for a 10-second slot in the current as well as next cricket season.
On top of that, India won't be playing overseas for the next two years - an absence that could well depress falling viewership ratings, which stood at 12 per cent for the recent Tri-Nations Cup in the Netherlands against 15 per cent for the earlier India-Pakistan clash.