Three out of four consumers in Asia will go online via non-browser-based applications, such as media players, instant messenger and file-sharing tools. It's already true in the US, says Nielsen//Netratings, and offers compelling new opportunities for marketers. Audiences will be reached based on the content requested by the applications (eg. jazz music on the RealPlayer serves an ad for the latest jazz CD).
With Asia's leadership in broadband penetration, we'll see more Flash and video. Video advertising will make a cautious premiere on 3G mobile and accelerate on the web - animation and short form video will lead the way, affecting website design and usability.
Online media will grab a small but growing percentage of budget, increasingly integrated with offline media buys. According to DoubleClick, digital marketing budgets have increased more than proportionally within overall marketing budgets, especially for FMCG and services. Japan and Australia will still comprise 80 per cent of the region's ad market.
This won't be the year we say bye-bye to the banner. Banners will hang on, despite declining from 80 per cent of online ad revenues in '97 (Jupiter) to a predicted less than 40 per cent in 2004. Search, content sponsorships, interstitials, and microsites will drive creativity. Campaigns related to the Olympics and Euro 2004 will help drive the trend. Special interest niche sites will share the focus with portals.
Email marketing overall click-through rates will continue to decline slightly as users become jaded, but click-through rates in Asia-Pacific will remain high compared to the rest of the world. DoubleClick research shows Asia-Pacific click-through rates at 21.1 per cent, versus a 9.3 per cent global average.
You'll pay more for the most impactful, effective properties. As publishers' inventories begin to sell out for key targeted placements (particularly in Australia and China), CPM will increase.
Permission-based email marketing will continue to flourish, even as mass mailing starts to die. The power of opt-in email will create greater advertising/sponsorship opportunities. Spam will disappear entirely! OK, that won't happen: spam will remain the single biggest obstacle to marketers who play by the rules.
However, as the power of consumer education, IT manager education, technology and legislation and law enforcement converge rises, the spam problem will begin to diminish to the level of today's viruses: a continuing headache that requires vigilance, but does not ruin the experience.