It took an election-eve gunshot wound to the stomach to propel incumbent Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian across the line in 2004, with voters narrowly re-electing him when polls opened the next day, thanks largely to the sympathy vote. Four years and a stagnating economy later, observers are wondering what will be the tipping point in the current presidential campaign.
Both candidates - Frank Hsieh of the DPP and the KMT’s Ma Ying-Jeou - are seen as strong and charismatic, although their communications approach and positioning differ markedly. Experts expect both campaigns to be more fiscally prudent than 2004 - a reference to Taiwan’s difficulties on the economic front, with the DPP expected to spend around US$40 million and the KMT war-chest reaching $25 million.
Hsieh, also former premier and mayor of Kaohsiung, is gearing up for a campaign based on reinforcing the party’s influence in key strongholds across Taiwan, while at the same time appealing to the voters as a ‘protector of Taiwan’, a move which will play up the party’s incumbent status. Importantly he’s employed a local consultancy to assist his bid for office.
Ma, on the other hand, has also recognised that with 87 per cent of Taiwan’s population living outside Taipei, a concerted grassroots push in regional areas is critical to his election strategy, with WPP’s MEC playing a leading role in developing strategy. “The KMT used to focus its campaigns on urban areas, which cost it votes in the past,” says Professor Huang Jenn-jia from Tamkang University’s department of mass communications. “So Ma is implementing a road campaign to bring him closer to voters in the regional provinces.”
Ma also sees youth as a key target group - an insight which may prove the difference between the two - with the party’s pre-election strategy using slang and colloquial language to strike the right nerve. “Many Taiwanese are beginning to vote for the individual candidate rather than blindly supporting a particular party,” says Taddy Ho, associate professor, department of visual communications, National Taiwan Normal University, who also works as a management consultant for BBDO Taiwan.
While there’s no shortage of general issues on which to campaign, communications experts predict that reunification with China, the high-profile political hot potato, won’t actually present itself as a talking point. At least overtly. “It’s not a 100 per cent popular cause,” says one agency head, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. “If they talk about it, they risk alienating fundamentalist supporters and consumers who have strong views either way. Both are trying to own the ‘grey’ middle ground instead, by focusing on the economy.”
TV, radio, print and outdoor expected to lead the charge when the campaigns get underway in February - officially, campaigns cannot start until one month prior to polling day, although some unofficial messaging is beginning to surface. Reach it seems, is difficult to ignore, but while traditional media looks a shoo-in to assert itself as the main platform of choice, below the line is emerging as a handy weapon. “PR and events will play crucial roles and both sides are also looking to embrace bloggers and online forums to promote their messages,” observes Stanley Liu, GM, GolinHarris Taiwan. “But it’s difficult to say in the end if they’re going to be successful in connecting with voters.”
