Leader: More questions as another head exits

Even in the darkest days of the protracted economic slowdown that gripped Asia, there was little change at the top echelons of regional agencies for the better part of the last four years. With the exception of an early 2003 change of guard at J. Walter Thompson, agencies like Ogilvy & Mather, FCB, Bates and TBWA have had the same chiefs since the late '90s. Now, we have two regional heads - Grey Global Group's Eric Rosenkranz and Saatchi & Saatchi's Patrick Pitcher - leaving within weeks of each other and another rumoured to be very close to an exit. And the year has barely hit its stride.

What do the tea leaves have to say about this sudden burst of top-level activity? For starters, it may be a sign that agency networks have grown impatient waiting for a region that houses two of the most populous markets on earth, a large majority of whom are in a desirable demographic, to deliver more robust growth. That is, tangible growth, not the type that comes from trimming operational fat, of which there is little left to excise after years of deep cost-cutting. Indeed, despite Asia's glowing population statistics and the upside potential of the much-hyped 'Asia-Pacific century', profit margins continue to shrivel up. Years of severe under-cutting exacerbated by bouts of terrorism and pestilence have cut margins to near anorexic levels. But the green shoots of recovery are becoming more apparent, and agency networks can ill afford to miss the opportunity of extracting greater growth from Asia.

Take Grey Global Group for instance. It apparently achieved record profits under Rosenkranz' tenure. But that may not be enough in the current scenario.

Being that rare species - an independent network that is publicly listed on the Nasdaq - Grey may need to ramp up its profitability further to satisfy shareholders and make it a very expensive acquisition target.

Industry sources in touch with Grey's headhunters aren't surprised that the search, which they say started a few months back, is taking this long.

A likely reason - apart from the time it does take to get the best possible candidate for the job - is the possibility that the post may not include stock options, given the growing likelihood of a Grey sale. At Saatchis, Pitcher's exit comes a year ahead of what was widely expected as his retirement in 2005. The suddeness raises a number of scenarios. One that's making the rounds is that his departure is linked to Publicis Groupe attempting to further rationalise its agency brands in Asia, a move that could see it merge Publicis and Saatchis. Just how far Publicis can go with this route will depend on the leeway it gets from clients, chiefly P&G, which lost an agency, D'Arcy, less than 18 months ago. It would take a brave client indeed not to be nervous about a similar prospect unfolding or that one of its agencies is without a regional creative and CEO.

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