Leader: IPO won't change the pecking order

Adland watchers in Japan are still debating what Dentsu did with the IPO cash it raised over three years ago, so no-one is expecting the status quo to be significantly ruffled, either in the short or medium term, by the planned mid-month flotation of Dentu's main rival, Hakuhodo DY Holdings.

Organic growth has been nigh impossible in a country in the grip of a 15-year economic stagnation and capital raised on the stock market could be used to finance further collaboration or acquisition. The only problem is that few candidates have presented themselves. Hakuhodo's tie-up with Daiko and Yomiko in 2003 to create HDY, primarily a media buying force in a market where media clout rather than creativity underpins agency vitality, signalled the most serious threat to Dentsu's dominance in years.

At launch, HDY vowed to take on what it described as "the shakeup that lies ahead" on its own terms.

However it was Dentsu rather than Hakuhodo that appeared to be galvanised by the deal, consolidating relationships with its major clients by hoovering up stray bits of business that had been placed with rival agencies. Dentsu also has the opportunity to stretch its lead by forging similar relationships itself.

Some of Dentsu's cash is thought to have gone overseas into the Middle Kingdom, where it has been quietly building a formidable base, and Dentsu's challenger, already following suit, is likely to step up its own investment in the Middle Kingdom. China is an increasingly important battleground for Japanese agencies locked in a tight unforgiving domestic market.

Even with the extra heft Hakuhodo has gained in HDY, the agency can't escape the fact that the pecking order remains the same. Dentsu remains king of the hill and Hakuhodo's presence on pitch lists owes as much to the necessity of providing an alternative to Dentsu as it does to the possibility that Hakuhodo may offer something clients want.

Hakuhodo isn't in desperate need of money. As with Dentsu and Japan's number three agency Asatsu-DK, it has an enviable cash pile. However, it may have picked a good time to raise it. After a decade and a half of a flat-lining economy, Japan has provided optimists in the last three quarters with hopeful indications of renewed life, opening up the possibility - just a possibility - of competitive opportunities that have been absent for a generation.

HDY promised to promote more open and healthy competition in order to help restructure the industry. If it wishes to be more than the eternal pretender to the throne, Hakuhodo has to do more than just forge alliances.

The industry is now waiting to see whether there will be a shakeup in Japan's advertising industry, and if so, what role Hakuhodo DY will play in it.

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