FOCUS - 2001 PREVIEW: Crisis still fresh in minds of consumers and clients

I've heard a collective sigh of relief going around the industry. "The crisis is over, everything will go back to normal," I hear them say. Well I'm sorry. Anyone who believes that is in for a rude shock in 2001. Because while many of the economic indicators may look better, the impact of the crisis on the mindset of consumers and our clients will last far longer. There's a prevailing attitude of cynicism. At the consumer level, people are wary. They are reluctant to spend money, less likely to take advertising's word for it.They're being bombarded more than ever with advertising messages and are more likely then ever to ignore them all completely. And clients are equally as wary. Many of them came to agencies during the difficult times looking for solutions and found the cupboard bare. They often found that advertising can't provide the answer, even though they were told it would. They often found a lack of real strategic understanding and capabilities under the glossy facade and smooth talking. They found you can't handle China out of Hong Kong no matter who says you can, and much, much more. I don't think clients are going to buy anymore that you can cover up the lack of a strong idea and selling proposition by getting Oliver Stone to direct. Or that you deserve a creative reputation because you won an award for an ad for a local hairdresser. So what's going to happen? - Branding will be more important, but brands will become more fragile. - Communication channels will become more complex but the communication process itself far simpler. - The vast majority of dotcom advertisers will disappear. There will be more consolidation in the industry. Those who are weak will disappear, particularly if they were holding on for the good times to come back. - Agencies will exit hard places to do business. They won't be able to afford the investment any more. - The number of people working in the industry will contract as agencies battle declining margins. - Advertising spend will not grow at the same rates as it has traditionally. - Clients will spend much more money below the line. - There will be no second chances. - The demand for true international standards will increase and the few agencies that truly deliver them will do well. And as for JWT in 2001, I think we're well placed. We've been preparing for this new reality through investing in our talent base, our knowledge base and total communications capability. The past year was better than expected and regional agency chiefs believe better times lie ahead for the communications industry in Asia-Pacific. However, there is an air of caution. The financial crisis of the late '90s and the speed at which economies tumbled, knocking a huge dent in the industry's prospects, are still fresh in their minds. This has led a few agency heads to hint that contingency plans have been drawn up in order to prepare for the unexpected. Nevertheless, despite this, the underlying mood is one of optimism, amid indications that the economic upswing is gaining in momentum.

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