I've heard a collective sigh of relief going around the industry.
"The crisis is over, everything will go back to normal," I hear them
say.
Well I'm sorry. Anyone who believes that is in for a rude shock in
2001.
Because while many of the economic indicators may look better, the
impact of the crisis on the mindset of consumers and our clients will
last far longer.
There's a prevailing attitude of cynicism. At the consumer level, people
are wary. They are reluctant to spend money, less likely to take
advertising's word for it.They're being bombarded more than ever with
advertising messages and are more likely then ever to ignore them all
completely.
And clients are equally as wary. Many of them came to agencies during
the difficult times looking for solutions and found the cupboard
bare.
They often found that advertising can't provide the answer, even though
they were told it would. They often found a lack of real strategic
understanding and capabilities under the glossy facade and smooth
talking.
They found you can't handle China out of Hong Kong no matter who says
you can, and much, much more.
I don't think clients are going to buy anymore that you can cover up the
lack of a strong idea and selling proposition by getting Oliver Stone to
direct.
Or that you deserve a creative reputation because you won an award for
an ad for a local hairdresser.
So what's going to happen?
- Branding will be more important, but brands will become more
fragile.
- Communication channels will become more complex but the communication
process itself far simpler.
- The vast majority of dotcom advertisers will disappear. There will be
more consolidation in the industry. Those who are weak will disappear,
particularly if they were holding on for the good times to come
back.
- Agencies will exit hard places to do business. They won't be able to
afford the investment any more.
- The number of people working in the industry will contract as agencies
battle declining margins.
- Advertising spend will not grow at the same rates as it has
traditionally.
- Clients will spend much more money below the line.
- There will be no second chances.
- The demand for true international standards will increase and the few
agencies that truly deliver them will do well.
And as for JWT in 2001, I think we're well placed.
We've been preparing for this new reality through investing in our
talent base, our knowledge base and total communications capability.
The past year was better than expected and regional agency chiefs
believe better times lie ahead for the communications industry in
Asia-Pacific.
However, there is an air of caution. The financial crisis of the late
'90s and the speed at which economies tumbled, knocking a huge dent in
the industry's prospects, are still fresh in their minds.
This has led a few agency heads to hint that contingency plans have been
drawn up in order to prepare for the unexpected.
Nevertheless, despite this, the underlying mood is one of optimism, amid
indications that the economic upswing is gaining in momentum.
