COMMENT: Separating myths from facts as China prepares for WTO

As China enters the WTO, there has been much media discussion on the future of this 1.3 billion population country. Thousands of lines of copy have also been written about China's future, many written by Westerners who have never stepped foot in the country. As is usual in these circumstances, many myths are created from the optimists to the doom mongerers.

China's advertising industry is estimated to have garnered Rmb 100 billion in revenues in 1999 and is expected to increase substantially in the coming years. Media inflation has reached around 40 per cent in the clamour for demand. The market is dominated by many small local agencies. The reason for this is that China is a honeycomb of local markets in which local and provincial brands fight for sales. China has very few national brands.

China is a country of differences and concealments.

Unfortunately, the tools to overcome the myths and concealments are not available. If you are a marketer who relies on scanning data from Nielsen you can get that data in Beijing and Shanghai. However, in other selected cities covered by Nielsen they provide only paper audit data. As statisticians will tell you, five per cent of the total sample will give you 95 per cent accuracy. So in China for some time to come we need to use our gut feeling to fill in the gaps. This is not an entirely comfortable position to be in.

The significant differences in social behaviour and disparity of income in China between the 'Big Three', second, third, and fourth tier cities is a legacy of history. That makes marketing extremely complex. Distribution issues, pricing levels, counterfeiting, lack of reliable data, stages of market development within regions, all conspire to create a tapestry of problems. So what works in the West almost certainly won't work in China. Dell has publicly acknowledged that beyond the 'big city' tier they will need to offer a different sales model than the direct model they are famous for. Part of the reason is that "some people in some cities don't like ordering stuff over the phone".

So must companies change their advertising messages to market to different tiers? Well, it is a question of what is most effective. Tailored messages are always hard-working but mostly come with attendant higher costs. Multi-media solutions may be the answer based around a core brand essence.

Despite the difficulties, I remain optimistic about China. The mainlanders are interesting, creative people. It is another myth that needs expelling that the people of China are represented by the cheap copies of global brands. However, some Chinese creativity becomes a little too entrepreneurial.

I heard recently of the problem of one global brand whose own stores in the big cities were found to have counterfeit products on the same shelf as the authentic ones. The quality of the counterfeits made it difficult to tell the authentic from the fake.