Aussie media bracing for 2001 adspend dip

SYDNEY: Australia's total advertising spend for 2000 rose to Adollars 4.73 billion (USdollars 2.5 billion) - a 9.7 per cent increase compared to the 1999 figure - but the rise comes with a warning that revenues could slump. The figures have been issued by the Commercial Economic Advisory Service of Australia (CEASA). However, managing director Bernard Holt predicted a fall in revenues in 2001 on the basis of cyclical trends that show the market falling for one or two years after three years of rising revenues. The increase in revenues last year built on another rise in the 1999 total over 1998. The 1999 total reached dollars 4.31 billion, which represented a near four per cent increase on the previous year, adding weight to Holt's view. CEASA's predictions could be softened by the effect of up to five state polls and national elections that are due in 2001, which are expected to boost advertising spend. Figures for 2000, excluding classified directories that attracted dollars 508 million-worth of advertising, show that newspapers attracted the largest amount of adspend of 41.27 per cent, or dollars 1.74 billion. Television was in second place with 33.74 per cent, or dollars 1.42 billion. Comparing the 1999 figures with the following year's for the two mediums, TV closed some of the ground between itself and newspapers. Television's share rose from 31.42 per cent in 1999, while newspapers found their stake falling from 1999's 41.76 per cent. In terms of revenue and market share, outdoor was the biggest gainer. In 1999 it had 4.12 per cent of adspend; last year that rose to 5.46 per cent. Both magazines and radio saw their share shrink, although the overall market increase allowed each to post revenue gains. Magazines saw their share slip back from 7.49 per cent in 1999 to 7.42 per cent in 2000, as radio fell back from to 7.49 per cent. Magazines' income rose to dollars 314 million and radio's to dollars 355 million. Holt said that an examination of the '90s as a whole showed a pattern of recovery and recession. "The period '90-'91 were recession years with the obvious effect on advertising expenditure. Then recovery for one year and a drop followed by recovery and two drops. Then recovery and two drops. Finally, another recovery. On the evidence so far, 2001 will be a drop."

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