Asia and digital key drivers for global adspend growth: Latest forecasts

The two organisations largely agree on the big picture, with global adspend predicted to increase by 3.5 per cent in 2013 and 5.1 per cent in 2014 (according to ZenithOptimedia's Advertising Expenditures Forecast) and by 3.0 per cent in 2013 and 6.1 per cent in 2014 (according to the Magna Global advertising forecast). The two outfits also agree that spending in Asia-Pacific and Latin America is making up for anaemic spending in Europe and North America.

Both reports allocated significant space to the increasing importance of digital spend to the global advertising machine. For example, Magna Global reported that digital media will grow by 13.4 per cent in 2013, reaching a 23.3 per cent market share. For its part, ZenithOptimedia forecast that internet advertising will increase by an average of 15 per cent a year between 2012 and 2015, contributing 66 per cent of all global adspend growth over that period. 

Some other digital predictions:

• Social media generated US$5.9 billion in advertising revenues in 2012, and will grow 39.6 per cent in 2013 (Magna Global). 
• Mobile advertising will grow by 67 per cent in 2013 and at an average of 51 per cent a year between 2012 and 2015 (ZenithOptimedia).
• Automated 'programmatic' buying now represents 17 per cent of online display transactions in the US and up to 30 per cent in some other advanced markets (Magna Global).
• By 2015, mobile adspend will reach $29.4 billion and account for 21.9 per cent of internet expenditure and 6.1 per cent of all expenditure, up from $8.6 billion, 9.8 per cent of internet spend and 1.8 per cent of total spend in 2012 (ZenithOptimedia). 

In addition, both companies comment on Japan's "surprise return in the growth club", to use Magna Global's words. ZenithOptimedia pegs Japan's adspend growth at 2.4 per cent this year (an increase from an earlier prediction of 1.0 per cent) and 2.0 annually thereafter. Magna Global has Japan growing somewhere between 0.2 and 1.5 per cent this year, followed by between 2.3 and 2.9 per cent in 2014.

Highlights affecting other regional markets include:

• China's ad spending will grow 11.6 per cent growth in 2013, 12.1 per cent in 2014 and 12.6 per cent in 2015 (Magna Global).
• 'Advanced Asia' (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea) will see spending decline 0.6 per cent this year, but rebound strongly to record 7.0 per cent growth in 2014 and 6.8 per cent growth in 2015 (ZenithOptimedia).
• 'Fast-track Asia' (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam) will grow 10.6 per cent in 2013, followed by 10 to 11 per cent annual growth in 2014 and 2015 (ZenithOptimedia).

See the associated infographic gallery for additional data from ZenithOptimedia's report.