Both Magna's report, and ZenithOptimedia's (published around the same time) anticipate the global growth will be around 3.9 per cent (Magna) to 4.2 per cent (ZO).
Beyond this point, the reports differ in terms of breakdown. ZO splits Asia-Pacific into 'Advanced Asia;, 'Fast-track Asia' and Japan, whereas Magna opts to address the region as a whole and by selected market.
You might also like:
- Digital strategy - it's all part of doing business now: PwC Outlook
- The quest for integration: 2015 Marketers' Outlook survey
- Are the global media reviews really about transparency?
According to Magna, as a whole, Asia-Pacific's adspend grew last year by 6.2 per cent to reach US$138 billion.
Overall, TV still remains the region's largest format with just over 40 per cent of the adspend pie, found Magna. While this is down from its peak of 47 per cent in 2005, TV still remains well-ahead of digital which claims 29 per cent of the market. TV in Asia-Pacific is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent this year, ahead of 2014's 1.8 per cent growth rate.
Advanced Asia (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea)
Overall growth for these markets was largely flat in 2014 (1.9 per cent) but is expected to pick up to an average of 3.2 per cent a year through to 2017, said ZO. Last year's shortfall was due to a weakness in the property market, which damaged consumer confidence in Singapore and Australia. But as these problems recede, advertising expenditure will increase.
Spend in Australia, particularly, is increasing, reported Magna, with 3.8 per cent growth expected in 2015 (reaching $12 billion) compared with last year's 1.2 per cent growth. "Australia remains one of the most mature and intense advertising markets, with ad spend per capita passing $500 this year, which is the fourth highest global total, trailing only Norway, the United States and Switzerland," said Magna.
Fast-track Asia (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam)
As a whole, this chunk of Asia is about to slow down after years of blistering growth, said ZO. Last year's growth of 9.9 per cent is expected to decline slightly to average 9.1 per cent a year through to 2017. This is due to China, which accounts for 66 per cent of ad-spend in this category; its slowdown naturally drags the rest of the sub-region down.
China: Magna reports that China's ad spend grew by 10.5 per cent in 2014 to $46 billion and will grow by 8.1 per cent in 2015 to 49.7 billion. "Growth continues to slow as the Chinese market transitions to a consumption economy," wrote the report. "Digital continues to take share of the total media pie, and will grow to represent 44 per cent of all media spend in China by the end of this year, ahead of TV’s 36 per ecnt share."
India: As China slows down, India is now the fastest growing among large markets in Asia, and the most dynamic “BRIC” by far. Magna's 2015 ad revenue growth forecast is nearly unchanged at 13 per cent. The lack of a general elections this year was offset by the cricket world cup.
The two reports seem divided on Japan. Magna's is more positive, anticipating growth of 3.4 per cent in 2015 following 4 per cent growth in 2014, in part due to inflation but also because the consumer tax increase scheduled for 2015 has been postponed.
ZO on thee other hand, believed that despite recent measures of economic stimulus, Japan will remain " stuck in its rut of persistent low growth". "Adspend growth has averaged 2 per cent a year for the last five years, and we expect it to remain at that rate between 2014 and 2017."