APAC adspend forecast becomes slightly less optimistic: Carat

The company's prediction of 4.4 percent growth for APAC trails its global forecast of 4.5 percent growth and has been revised down from a prediction of 4.7 percent growth made last year. The agency cites more conservative forecasts for several markets as the reason for the change:  

• China (5.8 percent, down from 6.5 percent)
• Australia (2.5 percent, down from 2.8 percent)
• South Korea (2.4 percent, down from 3.1 percent)
• Taiwan (-0.4 percent, down from 0.3 percent)
• Malaysia (3.3 percent, down from 3.5 percent)

On the bright side, Japan's adspend is now expected to increase  by 1.8 percent in 2016, revised upward from the 1.6 percent predicted in September 2015.

For 2017, the agency is predicting 4.7 percent growth in APAC.



“Carat’s advertising forecast shows optimism for growth in Asia Pacific for 2016 and into 2017," said Nick Waters, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network Asia Pacific. "Spend was revised from 4.7 percent to 4.4 percent in the region this year due to more conservative forecasts in China and Australia, but there is general positive momentum. Double digit growth rates that were common in China before 2011 have been replaced by more moderate, mid-single digit advertising spend growth." 

Some other tidbits from the report:

• China, the world’s second largest advertising market is forecast to show 5.8 percent growth in 2016, totaling US$81.5 billion and accounting for 15 percent of total worldwide media spend.
• Australia's forecast growth of 2.5 percent for 2016 is down from the earlier forecast of 2.8 percent due to the uncertainty associated with the China slowdown affecting the Australian commodity sector, in addition to the financial market turbulence.
• Following 11 percent growth in 2015, India is expected to enjoy another double-digit increase of 12 percent in 2016, with the India T20 Cricket World Cup and state elections cited a factors.
• In China, TV will see modest 1.7 percent growth in 2016, but will still account for 53.3 percent of spending. Meanwhile, digital spending will grow by 26.4 percent and mobile by 47.1 percent.
• In Japan, 2016 digital spending will grow 8.9 percent, revised up from the 8.5 percent Carat predicted in September 2015.
• In India, TV advertising revenues are forecast to grow by 12.3 percent in 2016, perhaps ironically supported by strong spending from e-commerce companies (and FMCG brands). Digital's share of advertising spend remains relatively low at 8.9 percent.